Pollster Ben Ephson says whoever wins Greater Accra Region will carry the day on December 7.
Contributing to discussions on 3FM’S ‘Decision 2020’, Mr Ephson said anyone who had won majority in Parliament and the presidential elections will have to win the Greater Accra, Central and Western regions.
He will, however, not predict which of the two leading political parties will win the Greater Accra Region.
According to the pollster, who is also the Managing Director of the Dispatch newspaper, the importance of Greater Accra is magnified by the fact that it has over 33 percent increase in registered voters between 2016 and 2020, representing some 3.5 million votes.
Greater Kumasi in the Ashanti Region comes second in terms of population with a little over 3 million people.
President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo is currently in the Greater Accra Region campaigning.
He will stay in the Region for the next four days.
Giving the ethnic diversity of the Region and the top 10 ethnic groupings in Ghana, Mr Ephson said 4 percent of Ghanaians vote on ethnic lines.
“So if you consider the fact that in Greater Accra the ethnic groups are much diversified. We have Gas 18.8%, Ewes 17.9%, Fantes, 10.6%, Damgbes 10.3%, Ashanti’s 8.3%, Akuapims 4.8%”
Others are Kwahus representing 4.6 percent, this is followed by Akyem 4.4 percent, Dagombas 1.3 percent and lastly Nabdam 1 percent.
“Greater Accra virtually reflects a sizeable number of people and it reflects the mood and Greater Accra is going to be key. It is so funny and strategic that Greater Accra and to some extent Western and Central vote on the same lines. One of the reasons why the NDC did not do well is that Greater Accra, the second highest ethnic group is the Ewe that is to 17.9 and if the Volta Region is the base of the Ewe population. The NDC lost 100,000 votes in the Volta between 2012 and 2016 so Greater Accra has quite a sizeable number.”
Meanwhile, Wisdom Dewortor, a Researcher at the SAPPI Economic Research Institute in Ghana, has predicted the NDC might win the Greater Accra Region with 52 per cent of the votes.
“According to intelligence we picked, the NDC has asked most of its supporters to stay in Accra so that they can snatch seats such as Ayawaso West Wuogon, Adentan and that of Ashaiman for the NDC and if this should weigh that means the NDC is able to garner about 52 percent votes from the Greater Accra Region.”